The immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari, recently, underscored the importance of population control in Nigeria. This is just as the World Population Day was marked, globally, some weeks ago. In this report, Assistant News Editor, Weekend, GBENGA SALAU, interrogates the correlation between accurate census data in designing measures for population control.
Since the 1980s, population control has been a worrisome challenge to managers of the country’s economy. This challenge, in the late 80s, spurred a national population policy. 
The challenge, over the years, has, however, become an albatross, especially, as about 68 per cent of Nigerians are said to be living below poverty line. Nonetheless, with its over 200 million population, Nigeria is seen as a major and preferred market destination across Africa. This is why many companies, especially those within the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) market are usually aiming to have footprint in Nigeria.
According to Statista, as of December 2023, Nigeria’s population was estimated at around 226.2 million. Between 1965 and 2023, the number of people living in Nigeria increased at an average rate of over 2 per cent.
In 2023, the population grew by 2.44 percent compared to the previous year. However, within the country’s huge population, about 86.7 per cent are said to be dependent, which implies that the country has not leveraged its huge population to achieve developmental goals.
In fact, as the population increases, poverty and other developmental challenges take upward negative swing. Yet, the same population that is seen as market value for investors and businesses is also considered a challenge because of failure of government to meet the demands of these inhabitants in the provision of social amenities to service the people.
At independence, in 1960, with a population of about 43 million people, the poverty ratio is said to be around 15 per cent. In the 1980s and 1990s, with a population less than the 100 million mark, the World Bank noted that about 46 per cent of Nigerians were poor owing to factors such as political instability, corruption and economic mismanagement.
On the human development index, Nigeria is ranked 161 out of 191 countries with a score of 0.539. It is also ranked 149 out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s corruption perception index.
Nigeria is rated first in the number of out-of-school children with over 20 million kids who are not in school. Sixty per cent of Nigerians, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, are multi-dimensionally poor.
This is why some have argued that the country should drive at population management first rather than population control. Weighing in on this, Professor Ibukun Akinyemi of the Department of Demography and Social Sciences, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), provided insight into what population control and population management are.
He said: “Population control refers to government interventions through policies and restrictive measures to limit the growth rate of a population through regulating fertility behaviors. Population management approaches and strategies towards optimising the population structure and distribution to achieve economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Population management addresses a wide range of factors affecting population dynamics and emphasising sustainable development.
“As a responsible government, the approach adopted in Nigeria is population management. The pathway towards making the benefits of the huge population often refers to as demographic dividend is through promotion of family planning and reproductive health services, improving education particularly of girl child, optimal healthcare services, improved quality of life and improved economic opportunities,” he stated.
And a reflection that the issue is about poor management of its population is contained in the position of the World Bank. At independence, in 1960, with a population of about 43 million people, the poverty ratio was said to be around 15 per cent.
In the 1980s and 1990s, with a population less than the 100 million mark, the World Bank estimated that about 46 per cent of Nigerians were poor owing to factors such as political instability, corruption and economic mismanagement.
Surprisingly, despite the frequent talk about the challenges Nigeria’s population pose, the country has development at least three population policies. The first was developed in 1988 and it was followed up with another in 2006 and the latest being in 2022.
In spite of these population policies, according to the United Nation, Nigeria’s total population will double from 200 million to more than 401 million by 2050. If the trend isn’t stopped, it will exceed 728 million by 2100.
Similarly, Nigeria’s fertility rate stands at 5.1 children per woman, compared with the global rate of 2.4 births per woman. Also, UNICEF said that more than 65 million people in Nigeria are between the ages of 10 and 24, while the World Bank said that unemployment in Nigeria grew from 6.4 per cent in 2010 to 33.3 per cent at the end of 2020.
Estimates point to an employment rate of more than 40 per cent in 2023, and the situation is especially dire for the young. On why previous national population policies failed to make the needed impact, Akinyemi argued that the previous population policies did not fail because some progress were made, especially as the policies provided good opportunity to escalate some of the issues with Nigeria’s population and its dynamics.
“Prior to the policy, there are core places in Nigeria that issues around family planning and reproductive health cannot be discussed because of culture and religion despite the evidence of been disproportionately affected by high-risk births and poor maternal and child health outcomes.
“However, the national population policies face several significant challenges that hinder its effectiveness and implementation. These challenges span social, economic, political, and cultural dimensions. The diverse and heterogeneity of the Nigeria population at sub-national levels raises a serious question about setting national targets.
“High fertility rates are often driven by cultural norms that favour large families, limited access to family planning services, and low contraceptive use. Adolescent fertility constitutes one of the biggest challenges the nation is facing. Education and women empowerment are important factors in ability for women’s autonomous decisions about when, how, and how many children to have. Unfortunately, there is still low level of education among women.
“Nigeria’s healthcare system faces numerous challenges, including inadequate infrastructure, insufficient healthcare personnel, and limited access to quality health services, especially in rural areas. This affects the delivery of family planning and reproductive health services, making it difficult for people to access and utilise these services.
“Data and high-quality research are critical in monitoring and evaluation of government policies, investments and the overall impact on the population. There are significant gaps in data collection, analysis, and dissemination, which hinder the ability to monitor population trends, evaluate program effectiveness, and make informed policy decisions. The last census was conducted in year 2006. Census provides the opportunity for monitoring population dynamics from national levels to smaller administrative units.
“Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach, including enhancing education, improving healthcare infrastructure, promoting gender equality, investment in data and research, and fostering cultural and behavioral change.”
This is why Akinyemi feels that the country needs to implement its new population policy. He said: “There is every reason to implement the new national policy.”
According to the United Nations, more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries, five of these are in Africa and Nigeria is among.
Although fertility rates have been declining steadily in Nigeria from 5.84 births per woman in 2010 to 5.25 in 2018, this is still high. The use of modern contraceptives is generally low at 10.5 per cent.
“The adolescent fertility rate is 102 in Nigeria compared with 21 in Asia and the Pacific, and 26 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In the US, it’s at 15, five in France and 42 globally.
“The adolescent fertility rate has huge implications for population growth because of the number of years between the start of childbearing and the end of a woman’s reproductive age. A high fertility rate in this age group also has a negative influence on the health, economic and educational potential of women and their children. About 36 per cent of married women in Nigeria are in polygamous marriages.
“The policy is critical in driving the population dynamics towards ensuring demographic benefits. The revised National Policy provides three frameworks which classify the responsibilities of those concerned.
“These frameworks are designed to achieve cohesion, ownership, collaboration, partnership, and engagement across all levels and sectors for the effective implementation of the policy.”
Ironically, all the data and statistics being reeled out about Nigeria’s population are not based on empirical definite data collection but estimates. Yet, lack of accurate data means that policies and planning are often products of political expediencies rather than evidence, which makes it almost impossible to align complex interaction between individual, community and societal needs to government planning.
So rather than be talking about population control, should it not be about having a proper census, even though Nigeria has had at least two in the past, to have a true picture of the country’s population and its indices.
Ventilating on this, a Public Policy and Advocacy Specialist, Adewale Adeduntan, stated that it is essential to highlight the critical role of accurate population data in shaping effective policies, noting that while the discourse on population control is important, it must be grounded in a solid understanding of the country’s demographic realities.
He added: “Accurate and up-to-date population data is indispensable for informed planning and policy-making. Without reliable information from a comprehensive census, it becomes challenging to grasp the true demographics of Nigeria, including age distribution, regional population densities, and growth trends. Such data is vital for making strategic decisions about resource allocation, infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and other public services.
“Conducting a census in Nigeria, however, has historically faced numerous challenges. Logistical issues, funding constraints, and political influences have often led to inaccuracies in population estimates. These hurdles must be addressed to ensure the reliability of the data.”
Adeduntan insisted that population control measures are undoubtedly important, especially in countries experiencing rapid population growth but implementing effective strategies requires a thorough understanding of actual population dynamics.
“Without precise data, any population control initiatives may be misguided or ineffective. An integrated approach is necessary, one that combines efforts to conduct a reliable census with ongoing discussions about population control. Prioritising accurate data collection provides a robust foundation for any population-related policies.
“Policymakers should invest in improving census methodologies, embracing technology, and ensuring transparency in the data collection process “Ultimately, accurate population data will not only support population control measures but also enhance economic planning, social development, and national security.
Therefore, while discussions on population control are crucial, they should be underpinned by reliable and comprehensive population data, starting with the successful execution of a national census.”
While the estimate being used to aggregate the country’s population is from the 2006 census, which was carried out when Nigeria was still safe and not battling a lot of the challenges claiming lives today, the estimates from the last census have continued to be the benchmark.
For instance, as a result of insecurity, about 63,111 persons were killed within eight years of the previous administration. Also, Nigeria has one of the highest maternal mortality ratios in the world, with an estimated 512 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. This means that for every 100,000 live births in Nigeria, approximately 512 women die due to pregnancy or childbirth-related complications.
With the statistics around maternal and child mortality being high, increasing deaths from insecurity across different parts of the country and life expectancy low, are there dangers in Nigeria engaging in population control at this time?
Adeduntan said that as Nigeria grapples with alarming statistics on maternal and child mortality, rising deaths from insecurity, and low life expectancy, the question arises: Is now the time for population control? While controlling population growth might seem like a solution, it’s essential to dig deeper into the underlying issues affecting the nation’s well-being.
“High maternal and child mortality rates highlight the urgent need for better healthcare access and quality. Focusing on population control without tackling these root causes could worsen health challenges. It’s crucial to prioritise healthcare improvements and education to reduce these mortality rates.
“Insecurity across various regions presents another significant danger. Without addressing the factors driving this instability — such as poverty, unemployment, and social inequality — population control efforts may miss the mark. Stability and security are vital for creating environments where citizens can thrive.
“Nigeria’s low life expectancy is often tied to inadequate healthcare and poor living conditions. Population control measures that don’t address these issues might neglect the importance of enhancing overall quality of life. Investing in healthcare infrastructure, promoting healthy lifestyles, and ensuring access to essential services are key to boosting life expectancy.”
Adeduntan, therefore, maintained that rushing into population control without a comprehensive plan risks diverting resources from pressing health, security, and economic challenges.
“Moreover, policies lacking cultural sensitivity could face resistance and deepen existing inequalities. Instead of focusing solely on population control, Nigeria needs a data-informed and holistic approach. By integrating efforts to improve healthcare, education, security, and economic opportunities, the nation can achieve sustainable population growth and better living conditions for all.”
He added that prioritising these fundamental issues will pave the way for Nigeria’s long-term stability and prosperity. “More importantly, we need accurate data to address the identified fundamental issues,” Adeduntan stated.
On his part, a Professor of Population Economics at University of Maiduguri, Borno State, Jubrin Musa Talba, maintained that population is and should be considered a blessing if considered from a multifaceted dimension.
According to him, policymakers think it is a curse because they couldn’t meet the obligations and the demand for the growing population in terms of provision of social amenities and infrastructure.
“So that is the main reason and they believe that if the population was small, they would be able to meet the obligation, which is the impression they have. And that may not be true.
“The proponent of incremental theory of population often argued that if the population growth outstripped production capacity of an economy, the economy is in danger. That is as far back 1958. After then, so many researches have come up from the national research centre of Canada, United States of America (USA) and they could not confirm the relationship or the theory as they could not proof that high population growth is really detrimental to the economy. They could not.
“There is also another research in Australia about population and development and they refuted the assumption that higher population growth leads to under development.”
Talba also argued that regional agreements and markets that are being signed are meant to boost merchant and productive capacities through bringing populations and countries together like a broom.
“Put them together in one large basket so that you have a very large market when the population is large because you would see heterogeneity in the demand.
“Nigeria can take the example of India, Pakistan and what their model is and I believe it is going to work in Nigeria if these policies are put in place.” He maintained that it is because government cannot meet the obligations of the population that is why there is trouble.
“We cannot provide quality education, we cannot handle healthcare, and people are dying. Yet, the countries that are pushing for reduction in fertility rate, if you look at them in the next 20-30 years, they are aging and are looking for replacement, like in China now, they have revisited their policy of one child per woman, it in same Korea and other eastern and western parts of Europe. They are looking for migrants to replace the aging population.”
Talba insisted that if government has provided social amenities to the populace including quality education, Nigeria should be exporting labour to other countries in return for huge diaspora remittance back home which could help raise government revenue and boost the economy.
“Look at India, as far back as 1972, they were ‘selling’ labour. It was a source of foreign revenue which brings forex to the country. If Nigeria can really upgrade or improve the quality of education, especially technical education, science and innovation and the products of the education system channeled properly, the country can have a policy of agreement of sending excess labour within to other countries and the remittances would be captured as part of net income in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nigeria.”
